Letter 13. The Baskets 2# Kaspi.kz
On Kazakhstan, competition, and leadership at Kaspi.kz
Welcome readers to letter 13 where I will continue on the story of Kaspi.kz.
DISCLAIMER: This article does not recommend buying or selling any financial instrument. Please do your own research. This information is for general purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. I am not a financial advisor and do not offer investment recommendations. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal, and other advisers about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions on the basis of the investor’s own objectives, experience, and resources.
Country of operation
92% of the Kazakhstan population has access to the Internet1 and a total population of 19 million, giving 17.5 million potential customers for Kaspi in the state. As of 2023, 13.2 million individuals (or 75% of the internet users) were actually using Kaspi’s mobile app on a monthly basis and 8.6 million (or 65% of monthly active users) used the app daily. If you compare that engagement rate and DAU/MAU2 to rivals around the world (see Figure 2, only Alipay and Wechat can match those numbers.3 For me it means that this company is very relevant to a lot of people in their daily life in Kazakhstan.4 For more details on the super apps in emerging countries check the following link.5 What’s more, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Azerbaijan score relatively high on the “ease of business index” at numbers 25, 7, and 28 of the world, in front of the Netherlands for example. Ease of doing business ranking indicates better, usually simpler regulation for companies and stronger protection of private ownership rights.
Politics in Kazakhstan
It’s funny to me that when I type in “Kazakh government” on youtube, the results portray a government that is fighting protestors in January 2022.6 However, when I type in “Qazaq government” as the current Chairman of the Senate Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev prefers it, I get a more nuanced combination of search results. Kazakhstan or Qazaqstan is an autocracy and that is how one should approach it.7 The country has been aiming at distancing itself from Russian influence since the special military operation in Ukraine.8 One way the government is trying to promote this stance is by transforming the language to a more Latin-based one where Kazakh is the dominant language. Additionally, the Tokayev-led government is not interested in entanglement in the conflict in Ukraine and does not state to be in support of either Russia or Ukraine.9 This stance I would call rational as Kazakhstan has strong relationships with Western and Eastern countries, a multivector foreign policy.10 The chances coincide with the emigration of ethnic Russians from Kazakhstan to the motherland and a more Kazakh-first political stance according to Paul Goble.11 For Kazakhstan, this change has been one of large proportions as the Kazakh ethnic group only accounted for 40% of the total population when the republic gained independence.12 In 2023, that number has gone up drastically to over 70% with the percentage of ethnic Russians dipping below 15%.13
Geopolitics
Moving on to the geo-noice, the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan14 and the bond with China is complicated but may be best described by existing reports. Moreover, the European Union also has economic ties with Kazakhstan.15
“With over 70% of its oil exports going to the EU (6% of EU oil demand), Kazakhstan is already the EU’s third largest non-OPEC supplier, after Russia and Norway. Kazakhstan has very large reserves of uranium and ranks first in the world in terms of production and export of raw uranium. It is the single largest supplier to the EU nuclear energy industry and meets more than 21% of the EU uranium demand. Kazakhstan’s oil and uranium exports are important to the European Union and make a positive contribution to the continent’s energy diversification.”
China is increasingly investing in the Kazakh economy in line with the Belt and Road initiative. What’s more, China is seeking more political and defense cooperation with Kazakhstan through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. That support is somewhat comforting to Tokayev who has to be wary of Russia that could choose to “liberate”16 the sizeable Russian population living in northern Kazakhstan, similar to the Donbass region in Ukraine.17
Economy
Because Kazakhstan produces and exports large volumes of oil and gas, its economy is particularly sensitive to the price of oil and gas on the world market. – Kaspi.kz annual report 2022
56.8% of Kazakh export value in 2019 was crude oil, with additional exports in other raw materials such as iron, copper, gold, and uranium. The latest period when the oil price was around 120 USD (2010-2014), Kazakh gross domestic product (GDP) was around 200 bil USD. From 2015 to 2019 oil was between 60-80 USD, and GDP went down to 175 bil USD. The 12.5% decrease in GDP in a just a few years presents how big an impact the oil market can have on the entire economy of Kazakhstan. The export of oil is has proven to be difficult due to logistic challenges. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium transports nearly all the crude oil from western Kazakhstan to the black sea region at the Russian port of Novorossiysk.18 This city came into the news recently when a warship was hit by a drone at the port of the city.19 Because of this reliance, president Tokayev has requested the oil industry to diversify its oil logistics infrastructure along the Middle Corridor into Baku, Azerbaijan, and towards Xinjiang, China.
“While in recent years Kazakhstan has sought to diversify its economy and, in particular, to increase exports of manufacturing products, Kazakhstan continues to remain heavily reliant on the oil and gas industry and on hydrocarbon exports.”20
The economy is not only benefiting from high global oil prices since 2021 but also the effects of supply-chain restructuring away from Russia.21 Kazakhstan could benefit from the relocation of firms seeking to maintain a presence in the Eurasian region after the war in Ukraine started last year. Material effects are likely to become visible in the near future.
Business in Kazakhstan
The Kazakh government is supportive of privatization and innovation within its border to develop the economy (especially since 2022) with the Digital Kazakhstan program and other government reforms that have the goal to improve public governance, reduce the role of the state in the economy, address corruption, and modernize the economy.22 Additionally, it has the goal to create an ecosystem where IT startups can develop at, for example, the Astana hub.23 The young (29.5 years median age), the tech-savvy population in Kazakhstan further aids in producing entrepreneurs developing innovative IT products and services.
I see similarities between Kazakh and Chinese politics. From 1945 to 1976, China had a strong leader in the form of Mao Zedong that was followed up in 1977 by Deng Xiaoping who brought capitalism to mainland China. During Deng’s rule, the People Republic of China (PRC) introduced economic reforms and the “open door policy” which led to economic prosperity up till this day. Nursultan Nazarbayev was a “strong man” like Mao Zedong and maybe Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev could be what Deng Xiaoping was to the PRC in terms of privatization and opening up to foreign investment and trade.24
In January 2018, Astana Financial Services Authority launched the first regulatory sandbox in the region called the“Fintech Lab”, which allows firms to test out and develop innovative products, and services under a special regulatory regime with tailor-made regulatory requirements applicable for each individual firm. - AIFC25
These actions provide a tailwind for Kaspi.kz as it will likely cause more IT professionals to remain in the region and provide a supportive regulatory body that can control the development of IT business in Fintech, e-commerce, and other related industries.
Competition
The management of Freedom Holding Corp, a major broker service business in Kazakhstan, points out that their brokerage and financial services compete with Halyk Bank, Kaspi Bank, Bank CenterCredit, and First Heartland Securities (Jusan) in Kazakhstan. I would add Sberbank as a relevant competitor but since my country of residence is blocking me from reaching their website I can’t discuss this party.
Given that more and more of the everyday transactions, banking, and shopping happens through mobile services, I looked at the popularity of the two mobile operating systems Android OS and iOS. Typically Android phones come at a discount to Apple phones and result in a higher market share for Android OS. The market share of Android OS in Kazakhstan is 73.81% in July 2023.26 On the fintech side, Kaspi has a number of potential competitors for its business in Kazakhstan with Halyk and Júsan being the most dominant ones.27 Though, fintech is not a space that Kaspi has entered in Uzbekistan. It is merely the marketplace Avtoelon.uz that is active in Uzbekistan.
In terms of credit card payments, Kaspi is taking market share from Visa and MasterCard. Kaspi.kz transactions accounted for 66% of total processed payment volumes in Kazakhstan in 2020.28 Further information on the payment is limited so let’s move to the e-commerce segment.
On the marketplace “e-commerce” business, Kaspi is competing against Russian Wildberries29 and OLX30 on retail and Aviata.kz (owned by Freedom holding corp) for retail travel.31 Below is a figure on the share of revenue for each competitor in e-commerce in Kazakhstan in 2021. In the background, Amazon, Alibaba, and eBay are finding their own way into Kazakhstan so there are enough competitors in this market. The recent boom in e-commerce, credit card, and digital payments only started off recently during COVID-19 with the support of the successful digital payments platform Kaspi Pay.32 This event was likely a tailwind for Kaspi in their growth of user and number of transactions per user.
“Experts estimate the sector is currently growing at 25% per year, a rate likely to continue for at least the next three years. At the same time, according to the Ministry of National Economy, in 2020 the e-commerce market in Kazakhstan increased by 1.8 times year over year and is valued at USD 1.4 billion. Forecasts from local experts indicate that e-commerce in Kazakhstan was worth USD 1.5 billion by the end of 2021”33
Halyk Bank
Halyk Bank is a commercial savings bank in Kazakhstan that also has branches in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. It has a 32% market share in banking total deposits and is the most important partner for legal entities (corporate banking).34
Kaspi on the other hand has the second-largest retail deposit market share with 22% and tries to focus on retail banking and smaller businesses (SME).35 Halyk Bank bought some of Russian Sberbank subsidiary’s loans in Kazakhstan in 2022 primarily consisting of retail consumer loans like mortgage loans, car loans, and unsecured loans with no non-performing loans (NPLs) in response to the foreign sanctions on Russian businesses and assets.36
Halyk is trying to compete with Kaspi on many different services but the numbers from the first quarter of 2023 tell the truth on how they compare. GMV – Gross merchandise volume, the total value of goods and services sold across a platform during the period. Kazakh Tenge =KZT.
The MAU on Halyk HomeBank app amounts to 6.2 million versus Kaspi.kz with 11 million37 The number of clients for online banking at Halyk is 9.7 million compared to Kaspi with 5.7 million clients.38
43 billion KZT GMV on Halyk Marketplace versus 756 billion KZT GMV on Kaspi Marketplace, more than 17 times larger volumes.
Halyk has about 3000 active merchants on the marketplace platform versus Kaspi with 512K active merchants on Kaspi Marketplace, pretty much a different league.
The loan portfolio for Kaspi consists mainly of general purpose and Buy now pay later loans and falls under the Retail section with a portfolio of 3.2 trillion KZT. The Retail loan portfolio of Halyk is 2.6 trillion KZT and is slowing in growth relative to Kaspi’s loan portfolio. However, Halyk has a diversified portfolio of corporate and SME business loans in addition to the retail section that amount to 8.2 trillion KZT in 1Q 2023.
Kaspi has 4 trillion Tenge of customer deposits as a liability on the balance sheet (savings of consumers) while Halyk has more than double that with 10.1 trillion Tenge in 1Q 2023.
Net income was 188 bil KZT for Halyk in 1Q 2023 versus 174 bil for Kaspi, making it similar in profits. Both show growth of more than 50% in net income over 12 months.
The major shareholder is ALMEX Holding group JSC with 69.7%, which is controlled by Timur Kulibayev and Dinara Kulibayeva, son and daughter of former president Nursultan Nazarbayev. This year there were speculations ongoing that the Kulibayevs are planning to sell part of their stake in Halyk.39
In Kazakhstan’s financial space, there are twenty-two players with one – Halyk – dominant across most markets. Halyk accounts for over 30% of the Kazakhstan banking system’s loans and deposits and, in most markets, the nearest rival comes in at c40% of Halyk’s level, except for retail where Kaspi has approximately 65% of the deposit volumes Halyk has. We believe recent local political developments should support an improvement in the competitive environment in the financial space and the monetization of efficiency gains. – Olga Naidenova, Sinara finance
To put it short, Halyk is the dominant bank for banking in all sections while Kaspi Bank is a retail bank first that is the dominant player in payments between users with Kaspi Pay (consumers and merchants) in Kazakhstan and Kaspi marketplace with 70% of the market share. Halyk could be a fairly interesting investment but as long as Tokayev wants to reduce the power of former leadership, the shareholder base of Halyk Bank will remain uncertain.
Júsan Bank or First Heartland Jusan Bank
Jusan.kz40 is part of the holding company First Heartland and provides banking, brokerage/investing, and insurance (house, car, life) services as well as the e-commerce platform jmart.kz, traveling, and event tickets. Interestingly, Jusan has 3K bil KZT in assets compared to Kaspi.kz with 5.8K in bil KZT (or 13 bil USD) in assets. The e-commerce platform doesn’t show up in the e-commerce market (figure 4) which makes me wonder if it has any weight in the game. Total net income was 112 bil KZT for Jusan compared to Kaspi.kz with 194 bil KZT. Jusan is decently profitable as a bank with a 19% return on equity as of 31st of December 2022. if you would like to know why return on equity is relevant, check the link in the reference.41 Profitability rose from 10% in 2021 to 19% ROE because of a sharp increase in the national bank of Kazakhstan’s benchmark interest rate from 9% to 16.75% in one year time. This made the net interest margin for Jusan bank much higher, hence the sharp increase in profitability.42
In short, Jusan is a bank of relevance in Kazakhstan but not the super-app contestant that Halyk could be.
Freedom holding corp (NASDAQ:FRHC)
An outlier in this space is Freedom.kz, a provider of access to the international capital markets for retail brokerage clients in their core markets, the most important of which to date have been Kazakhstan and Russia. The Russian activities were divested in February 2023 (maybe pressure from US regulator?). Over 79% of total net income was attributable to operations in Kazakhstan as of March 31, 2023. Their strategy is to become a leader in the financial services industry, serving individuals and institutions desiring enhanced market access to international capital markets using state-of-the-art technology platforms for their brokerage and banking needs. Timur Turlov, the chief executive officer and chairman of our board, beneficially owns 71.1% of the shares and is a big influence on the management of Freedom holding corp. Any conflict of interest between him and the remaining shareholders could negatively affect the business.
The 10K describes that the business is not the financial service business with the largest resources or most diversified in terms of services. Their competitive advantage rests on their “extensive experience in providing investors in Kazakhstan with access to the U.S. and European securities markets and their ability to deliver high-quality analytical information”. Another component of their strategy includes the creation of a digital fintech ecosystem, something similar to Kaspi.kz. Their executive office is in Almaty, Kazakhstan and they have activities in Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Cyprus, Germany, the United Kingdom, Greece, Spain, France, Poland, the United States, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United Arab Emirates. They offer a number of financial services including:43
consumer & life insurance
banking
securities brokerage services (investing)
Online travel agency
Payments services
Our Central Asia and Eastern Europe segment consists of our operations in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine. The Central Asia and Eastern Europe region accounted for $566.1 million, or 71%, of our total revenue, net for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2023. 10-K - 08/04/2023 - Freedom Holding Corp
566 million USD does not way up against 1.67 bil USD for the Fintech business of Kaspi.kz but that is not the most important aspect of Freedom Holding. I have my doubts about the honesty of the management at Freedom Holding after reading more about the business. The annual report (10-K) informed readers that there are issues with internal control over financial reporting. This could be a red flag for fraudulent conduction of business.
“There is a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of the annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected on a timely basis. During fiscal 2023, the Audit Committee of our Board of Directors, after discussion with management, concluded that certain reports previously filed with the SEC included material misstatements. These reports have already been amended and filed with the SEC.”
In addition, legal proceedings were conducted against affiliated person Toleush Tolmakov who was mentioned in the Panama Papers, another red flag.44 Businesses with legal issues could find themselves distracted from doing business and fighting lawyers instead. Timur Turlov’s desire to establish a digital fintech ecosystem is a utopic one if they don’t solve internal issues first.
Bank CenterCredit
Bank CenterCredit (BCC) is Kazakhstan’s fifth-largest bank in terms of assets. The figure below clearly shows how BCC falls behind Halyk, Kaspi, and Sberbank on all banking metrics.
Management & Shareholders
Vyacheslav Kim
owns 24,13% of shares – Chairman Board of Directors.45 Bought the predecessor of Kaspi, Kaspiyskiy, back in 2002.
Vyacheslav Kim is one of the top ten most influential and richest businessmen in Kazakhstan. Because of that, a lot of doors can be opened through his network and influence over businesses all over Kazakhstan.
A co-owner of Kolesa Group since 2013. Now, Kolesa is owned for
2017–2019 – a co-owner of the Magnum Retail Chain, the largest in Kazakhstan.
The chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Magnum Retail Chain since 2019
In 2021-2022 – Independent Director on the Board of Directors of National Welfare Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" JSC
The relationship between Vyacheslav Kim and the Kazakhstan government allowed Kaspi to emerge as the country’s unofficial national online bank for paying taxes and fines, driving new user growth.46
Mikhail Lomtadze
Owns 23,30% of shares – CEO (Georgian) cofounder and former Baring Vostok (private equity) partner.
Harvard business school Alumni with a track record in banking and consultancy in Georgia. Decided to work for Michael Calvey and accepted a position without salary in 2004.47
Has a number of talks online about his personal life and career. You can check it out below.
“These products improve the life of Kazakh people. Kaspi.kz is the driver of innovation not only in Kazakhstan, but also is an example of successful super app strategy for many other companies in other markets. Kaspi.kz company was founded in Kazakhstan and our team does all the developments in Kazakhstan,” said Lomtadze.48
Kairat Satybaldy
Kaspi had a former shareholder of the company in Kairat Satybaldy, nephew to the former Kazakhstan president Nursultan Nazarbayev. In 2018 he sold his stake to Kim without a clear reason but could be related to the failed IPO in 2019.49 With his contacts, he was able to acquire ownership and elite positions in business and politics around the country. Articles now speculate that an internal political conflict within Kazakh leadership was the catalyst for the January violence in 2022.5051 Now, Kairat is prosecuted for involvement in the political conflict, corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion. Mikheil spends some time discussing corruption in Kaspi Bank in the video above (see from 41:00 - 43:10).
Capital allocation
When an investor is having a serious look at a business, it is always wise to look into the quality of capital allocation. Capital allocation is about where and how a corporation's chief executive officer (CEO) decides to spend the money that the company has earned.52 The metric can be followed to some extent by the return on invested capital, which stands at a 5-year average of 45% and 62% in 2022. Basically, it shows how 1 Tenge invested by the business returns 0.62 Tenge cents every year from the point the investment was made. So how does Kaspi make such returns every year?
Well, over the years Kaspi has become a business with a many products and services for their customers. In the beginning, the banking segment (fintech) brought in most returns but management was ready for more and started the payments and marketplace services along it since the early 2010’s. In recent years, investment was focused around Marketplace services like free deliveries of products bought by consumers, Kaspi Postomat, Kaspi travel, and e-grocery. My take from free deliveries is that it can attract more consumers and thereby indirectly creating profit returns.
Our investment in Postomat’s is significantly enhancing e-Commerce’s value proposition for consumers, merchants and delivery partners and gives Marketplace another long-term competitive advantage. Postomats increase the share of successful 1st time deliveries, lower the cost of last-mile-delivery and will help us protect Marketplace’s long-term profitability. Postomats are also a key part of our plan to make commerce in Kazakhstan more environmentally sustainable. - annual report 2022
On the e-Grocery Kaspi said the following:
Our recent decision to invest into e-Grocery, as part of a joint venture with Magnum, is a great example of this. We chose to form a joint venture with Magnum because they’re the country’s no.1 food retailer, with a nationwide presence. We have now taken steps to formalise this relationship, with Kaspi.kz committing to invest around KZT20-25 billion per annum over the next 3 years. Our equity ownership in e-Grocery is 90.01%, with the remaining 9.99% held by Magnum. Magnum will continue to bring their food retail expertise, especially market leading purchasing terms. Our main role remains the front-end user experience, while our data expertise allows us to efficiently define assortment and pricing. With the operating control that we now have, we intend to execute fast and can ensure all aspect of the consumer experience meet our high standards. - annual report 2022
Expansion abroad (inorganic growth)
To summarize the Kaspi story in Kazakhstan, they are dominating consumer finance, peer-to-peer payments and probably e-commerce. It doesn’t end their yet but the top growth is coming to an end. Kaspi is therefore looking abroad to expand in banking, payments, and e-commerce. In 2019, Kaspi moved into Azerbaijan across the Caspian sea with the acquisition of Turbo.az (cars), tap.az (e-commerce), and bina.az (real estate) along participation in Kolesa.kz and Krisha.kz in Kazakhstan to gain market share in two major household decision markets, cars and real estate. The car marketplace business of Kaspi has recently also entered the Uzbekistan market with Autoelon.uz.
Conclusive remarks
I hope you have learned more than enough about what Kaspi is doing and how management is executing in the (still young) nation Kazakhstan. I am sure there is more to come for the country when stability is maintained in the region. This work is a reference point for me as well to read ones in a while. The world is constantly evolving outside your own residency but sometimes we are not that aware of it. I challenge you to look beyond and stay eager to learn and above all, stay prudent.
For a recent analysis of Kaspi.kz from the financial sector, check this link.53
For a better understanding of super apps, this is the link for you.54
For insight into the payment market in Kazakhstan.55
For insights into the retail e-commerce market in Kazakhstan.56
For an overview of the financial sector in Eastern Europe, CIS, and the Caucasus, this is your link.57
Read or listen to the following work from yetanothervalueblog.com
or
DISCLAIMER: This article does not recommend buying or selling any financial instrument. Please do your own research. This information is for general purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. I am not a financial advisor and do not offer investment recommendations. Investors should obtain advice based on their own individual circumstances from their own tax, financial, legal, and other advisers about the risks and merits of any transaction before making an investment decision, and only make such decisions on the basis of the investor’s own objectives, experience, and resources.
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